Study Predicts 3.4% Growth Rate in Automotive Aftermarket

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Total aftermarket sales are predicted to grow from $286 billion in 2017 to $327 billion in 2021, an increase of nearly $41 billion over the four-year period, according to the "2018 Joint Channel Forecast Model" produced jointly by the Automotive Aftermarket Suppliers Association (AASA) and the Auto Care Association.

The 2018 Joint Channel Forecast Model also predicts the U.S. automotive aftermarket will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.4% through 2021.

"The Joint Channel Forecast shows the continued strength of key aftermarket drivers and the impact of the confident consumers, buoyed by a strong job market and lower personal tax rates," says Bill Long, president and chief operating officer, AASA. "It also shows influences driving evolution in the aftermarket: new and emerging technologies, changes in the distribution model and changes in consumers' expectations for mobility. We are an industry facing a lot of change, but we believe we have the people in the independent aftermarket with the leadership, vision and entrepreneurial spirit to enable us to grow and thrive in our pending era of change and opportunity."

"The sustained growth projected in the forecast is not only a result of key economic upswings, but also technology that is creating opportunities for new products, services and solutions across our market," says Bill Hanvey, president and chief executive officer, Auto Care Association. "These new technologies continue to widen the reach and scope of our industry as well as enable opportunities to add to the 4.6 million job powerhouse that we are."

The market sizing and forecast is conducted on behalf of AASA and the Auto Care Association by IHS Markit, the world renowned economic and market information firm. The forecast is based on the U.S. Census Bureau's Economic Census, IMR and Polk data, and proprietary IHS Markit's economic analysis and forecasting models.

The Joint Channel Forecast Model is available at the AASA website,, and in the Auto Care Association's 2019 Digital Auto Care Factbook, available at

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